Braden Cundiff will be contributing to OTAT as he sees fit. Giving the gambling fix to all of the fiends. His degenerate gambling qualifications include; chugging a 5th of Smirnoff Raz and winning $500 after the Colts epic comeback on the Chiefs in last year’s NFL playoffs, losing $200 betting black at Horseshoe casino, and regularly live better on the NFL combine.
With a snap of the wrist, a crackle of the bat and the pop of the ball summer is within our grasp. Our pastime is upon us and with it comes the prospect of a new gambling season. Baseball is a fickle sport with lines rarely fluctuating beyond +- 1 and the odds of picking one game out of 162 a task in itself. My advice to a would be gambler is to play the long game. The seasons is full of ups and downs and the odds of making money slim. However, with the season still not upon us, sorry Aussies that didn’t count, the futures are ripe for the picking. I fault to the long haul because I know I don’t have the fortitude to watch 162 games of any team. With dedication sure you can beat the line on a daily basis but I liken it to trading on the stock market. Some trend towards the day trades while others sit and watch their investment ride the roller coaster of the stock market.
In baseball this is especially true and in baseball fashion lets look at the numbers. Let’s say you bet on every game of your favorite team, all 162. You have to bet 162 times on a site such as Bovada.lv or Sportsbook.ag which charges a fee for every deposit and removal which is going to put you back another 50-100$ assuming you have to deposit at least 15-20 times a year. I know this all too well spending the last several years hunched over MLB.TV hunting for the bargain lines and deals. The truth is there are much smarter people out there whose job is to make sure Vegas makes money and your not going to beat them in the day trading game.
Where the casual better should live is in the future money lines….
Los Angeles Dodgers 11/2
Detroit Tigers 8/1
St. Louis Cardinals 9/1
Washington Nationals 12/1
New York Yankees 12/1
Boston Red Sox 15/1
The Tigers pitching staff always keep them in the conversation and at 8/1 it’s still a solid payout. Getting rid of the Vegan can only infuse a blue collar city full of carnivores. If I learned anything from Bible class The Lord detests sacrifices of plants when meat is available (see Cain and Able). I imagine the baseball gods follow suit and the removal of the vegetarian and replacing him with a red blooded Texan can only spell good news for the Tigers.
The most tantalizing to me out of this group are the Yankees. They have gotten back to their roots of spending big money on big names and more often than not that delivers the Bronx Bombers the World Series Trophy comes years end. I see this team acting much like the BoSox last year with low expectations and a herd of aging talent with just the right mix of wild cards thrown in, a.k.a. Tanaka. If CC and Kuroda can put up their career averages and Tanaka is as advertised the Yanks have a sneaky good top 3. $100 bet is paying off $1,200 which I’ll take all day for the team with the most championships of all time.
Danger Will Robinson Danger…the Dodgers are about to disappoint. I can’t disagree more with Vegas on this one. Yes they have Clayton and Ryu at the top of the rotation and heavy bats through out but its the intangibles that worry me. Baseball beyond any other sport seems to be one of destiny and I just don’t see that sparkle in LA. The fact that I hate this team so much probably means they’re going to take the crown and 5/1 is the best odds your going to get all year…
San Francisco Giants 20/1
Cincinnati Reds 30/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 30/1
The Giants love to take a few years off and then roll through the post season the following year. With a top 3 of Bum, Cain, and Timmy (a high ERA but over 200 K’s) they are still potent and capable of coming out of the NL. The Panda seems poised for a career year and Posey will probably replace Yadier as the best catcher in the game, if he hasn’t already. At 20/1 the casual gambler could pull in a cool $2,000 on a $100 bet.
A few decades ago the Pirates were a perennial power house and with the MVP looking to repeat there’s always a chance this team goes the distance. At 30/1 Vegas is looking for a regression of this playoff bound team and recent history would agree. Maybe it’s just the passion of the Pirates fans but something about this team screams destiny. At 30/1 a $100 gamble isn’t the worst decision one could make.
Baltimore Orioles 40/1
This Baltimore line shocked me for a team loaded with talent. The high payout can only be attributed to the lack of pitching with Tillman being the Ace of the staff. Pitching generally wins championships but for a team thats going to once again battle for a division title 40/1 is still high. To put this in perspective the team below them are the Seattle Mariners at 50/1. At 40/1 its worth a $20 flyer to win $800.